Seasonal Drought Assessment in Nineveh Governorate Using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the Rainy Seasons (2022–2012)
Abstract
This study analyzes the spatial and temporal variability of seasonal drought and wetness in Nineveh Governorate, northern Iraq, during autumn, winter, and spring between 2012 and 2022. As Nineveh is a key agricultural region, understanding seasonal climate variability is vital for planning agricultural policies and managing water resources for agricultural projects
Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and monthly rainfall data from 34 virtual meteorological stations (sourced from https://power.larc.nasa.gov ), the study employed descriptive and analytical methodologies supported by quantitative techniques.
The findings indicate that mild drought conditions dominated during autumn, while winter was characterized by relative climatic stability without signs of extreme wetness or dryness. In spring, light wetness prevailed in most stations, with a few cases of extreme drought observed in southwestern parts of the governorate.
The study concludes that Nineveh exhibits a general climatic trend toward mild to moderate drought. It recommends adopting proactive water management strategies and enhancing climate monitoring systems.
References
- AghaKouchak, A., Farahmand, A., Melton, F. S., Teixeira, J., Anderson, M. C., Wardlow, B. D., & Hain, C. R. (2015). Remote sensing of drought: Progress, challenges and opportunities. Reviews of Geophysics, 53(2), 452–480. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000456
- Ahmad, D. M., & Kam, J. (2024).Disparity between global drought hazard and awareness.Npj Clean Water,7(1), 75.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41545-024-00373-y
- Alghamdi, A. G., Majrashi, M. A., & Ibrahim, H. M. (2023). Improving the Physical Properties and Water Retention of Sandy Soils by the Synergistic Utilization of Natural Clay Deposits and Wheat Straw. Sustainability, 16(1), 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16010046
- Barlow, M., Zaitchik, B., Paz, S., Black, E., Evans, J., & Hoell, A. (2016). A Review of Drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. Journal of Climate, 29(23), 8547–8574. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00692.1
- Bevacqua, E., Rakovec, O., Schumacher, D. L., Kumar, R., Thober, S., Samaniego, L., Seneviratne, S. I., & Zscheischler, J. (2024). Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought. Nature Geoscience, 17(11), 1100–1107. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2
- Bhanu Kumar, O. S. R. U., Ramalingeswara Rao, S., Ranganathan, S., & Raju, S. S. (2010). Role of intra-seasonal oscillations on monsoon floods and droughts over India. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 46(1), 21–28. https://doi.org/10.1007/S13143-010-0003-6
- Dezman, L. E., Shafer, B. A., Simpson, H. D., & Danielson, J. A. (1983). Development of a Surface Water Supply Index- A Drought Severity Indicator for Colorado. In International Symposium on Hydrometeorology June 13-17, 1982, Denver, Colorado. American Water Resources Association, 1983. p 337-341.
- Entekhabi, D. (2023). Propagation in the Drought Cascade: Observational Analysis Over the Continental US. Water Resources Research, 59(9), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR032608
- Holgate, C. M., Falster, G. M., Gillett, Z. E. et al. (2025). Physical mechanisms of meteorological drought development, intensification and termination: an Australian review. Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1), 220. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02179-3
- Hussain, A., Reihanifar, M., Niaz, R., Albalawi, O., Maghrebi, M., Ahmed, A. T., & Danandeh Mehr, A. (2024). Characterizing Inter-Seasonal Meteorological Drought Using Random Effect Logistic Regression. Sustainability, 16(19), 8433. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16198433
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change )IPCC(. (2023). Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee & J. Romero (Eds.)]. IPCC. https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647
- Keune, J., Di Giuseppe, F., Barnard, C., Damasio da Costa, E., & Wetterhall, F. (2025). ERA5–Drought: Global drought indices based on ECMWF reanalysis. Scientific Data, 12(1), 616. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-04896-y
- Khan, M. M. H., Muhammad, N. S., & El-Shafie, A. (2018). Wavelet-ANN versus ANN-based model for hydrometeorological drought forecasting. Water (Switzerland), 10(8). https://doi.org/10.3390/W10080998
- Kim, K., & Garcia, T. F. (2023). Climate Change and Violent Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa. International Studies Review, 25(4). https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viad053
- Kim, Y. O., Lee, J. K., & Palmer, R. N. (2012). Etude de prévision de la sécheresse en Corée. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57(6), 1141–1153. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2012.702212
- Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R., & Żarski, J. (2021). Assessment of meteorological and agricultural drought occurrence in central poland in 1961–2020 as an element of the climatic risk to crop production. Agriculture (Switzerland), 11(9). https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11090855
- Mares, C., Mares, I., & Mihailescu, M. (2016). Identification of extreme events using drought indices and their impact on the Danube lower basin discharge. Hydrological Processes, 30(21), 3839–3854. https://doi.org/10.1002/HYP.10895
- Masroor, M., Rehman, S., Avtar, R., Sahana, M., Ahmed, R., & Sajjad, H. (2020). Exploring climate variability and its impact on drought occurrence: Evidence from Godavari Middle sub-basin, India. Weather and Climate Extremes, 30, 100277. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.WACE.2020.100277
- McKee, T. B., Nolan, J., & Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Preprints, Eighth Conf. on Applied Climatology, Amer. Meteor, Soc., January. relationshipofdroughtfrequency.pdf. Accessed 24 Aug 2025
- Mo, X. G., Hu, S., Lin, Z. H., Liu, S. X., & Xia, J. (2017). Impacts of climate change on agricultural water resources and adaptation on the North China Plain. Advances in Climate Change Research, 8(2), 93–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.05.007
- Morid, S., Smakhtin, V., & Moghaddasi, M. (2006). Comparison of seven meteorological indices for drought monitoring in Iran. International Journal of Climatology, 26(7), 971–985. https://doi.org/10.1002/JOC.1264
- Muthumanickam, D., Kannan, P., Kumaraperumal, R., Natarajan, S., Sivasamy, R., & Poongodi, C. (2011). Drought assessment and monitoring through remote sensing and GIS in western tracts of Tamil Nadu, India. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 32(18), 5157–5176. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2010.494642
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). NASA Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project. https://power.larc.nasa.gov Accessed 10 Jul 2024
- Pálfai, I. (2002). Probability of drought occurrence in Hungary. Quarterly J. Hungarian Meteorological Service, 106(3-4), 265-275.
- Palmer, W. C. (1965). Meteorological drought: Vol. 30. US Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau.
- Palmer, W. C. (1968). Keeping track of crop moisture conditions, nationwide: The new crop moisture index.
- Payab, A. H., & Türker, U. (2018). Analyzing temporal–spatial characteristics of drought events in the northern part of Cyprus. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 20(4), 1553–1574. https://doi.org/10.1007/S10668-017-9953-5
- Prakash, S. (2018). Capabilities of satellite-derived datasets to detect consecutive Indian monsoon droughts of 2014 and 2015. Current Science, 114(11), 2362–2368. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26495803
- Thornthwaite, C. W. (1948). An Approach toward a Rational Classification of Climate. Geographical Review, 38(1), 55–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/210739
- Tirivarombo, S., Osupile, D., & Eliasson, P. (2018). Drought monitoring and analysis: Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 106, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2018.07.001
- Uang-aree, P., Kingpaiboon, S., & Khuanmar, K. (2017). The development of Atmospheric Crop Moisture Index for irrigated agriculture. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 42(11), 731–739. https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373917110073
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). https://www.usgs.gov. Accessed 11 Jul 2024
- Van Rooy, M.P. (1965). A rainfall anomally index independent of time and space, notos. Weather Bureau South Africa, 14, 43-48. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/572292/en
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO). (2023). Definition of drought. Retrieved from https://wmo.int/topics/drought
- Xu, Z., Wu, Z., Shao, Q., He, H., & Guo, X. (2023). From meteorological to agricultural drought: Propagation time and probabilistic linkages. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 46, 101329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101329
- Zhang, Y., Liu, X., Wang, K., & Bai, P. (2024). Response of evapotranspiration to the 2022 unprecedented extreme drought in the Yangtze River Basin. International Journal of Climatology, 44(8), 2779–2791. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8480
- Zittis, G., Almazroui, M., Alpert, P., Ciais, P., Cramer, W., Dahdal, Y., Fnais, M., Francis, D., Hadjinicolaou, P., Howari, F., Jrrar, A., Kaskaoutis, D. G., Kulmala, M., Lazoglou, G., Mihalopoulos, N., Lin, X., Rudich, Y., Sciare, J., Stenchikov, G., … Lelieveld, J. (2022). Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East. Reviews of Geophysics, 60(3). https://doi.org/10.1029/2021RG000762
Identifiers
Statistics
How to Cite
Copyright and Licensing

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.


