اشتقاق مؤشر الهطول المعياري (SPI) من بيانات الأمطار اليومية المعتمدة على الأقمار الصناعية (CHIRPS) باستخدامGoogle Earth Engine لرصد الجفاف في العراق

Deriving SPI from Satellite-Based CHIRPS Daily Precipitation Using Google Earth Engine for Drought Monitoring in Iraq

القسم: Article
إصدار
مجلد 6 عدد 24 (2026): المجلد 6 / العدد 24

الملخص

تُعدّ ظاهرة الجفاف من أكثر الأخطار الهيدرو-مناخية استمراراً وتأثيراً في الأقاليم الجافة وشبه الجافة، ويُعدّ العراق من البلدان شديدة الهشاشة تجاهها لاعتماده الكبير على الأمطار الشتوية مع محدودية البيانات الرصدية الأرضية المستمرة. وعلى الرغم من الزيادة الملحوظة في الأدبيات العلمية المتعلقة بالجفاف في منطقة الشرق الأوسط، فإن التقييمات طويلة الأمد وذات التمثيل المكاني التفصيلي للجفاف الأرصادي في العراق ما تزال محدودة؛ إذ اعتمدت معظم الدراسات السابقة على تحليلات قائمة على محطات رصد ذات نطاق مكاني محدود، أو على مجموعات بيانات قصيرة الأمد لا تعكس بصورة كافية التباين متعدد الفترات.


لسد هذه الفجوة، تُقيِّم هذه الدراسة الجفاف الأرصادي في العراق باستخدام مؤشر الهطول المعياري (SPI) بالاعتماد على بيانات الأمطار اليومية المعتمدة على الأقمار الصناعية (CHIRPS)، والتي جرى دمجها ومعالجتها ضمن منصةGoogle Earth Engine (GEE) . أُجريت حسابات SPI على مقاييس تجميع 3 و6 و12 شهراً، ولـ 41 سنة مائية (1983/84–2023/24)، بما يضمن اتساق الحسابات مع ديناميكية السنوات المائية في المنطقة. واعتمدت الدراسة نهجين تحليليين متكاملين: (أولاً) سلسلة زمنية وطنية مُجمَّعة لـ(SPI) لفحص التغاير الزمني ومراحل الجفاف طويلة الأمد، (ثانياً) إطاراً مكانياً قائماً على البكسل لـ(SPI) لتحديد عدم التجانس المكاني، والامتداد المساحي، وتكرار فئات الجفاف والرطوبة.


تُظهر النتائج تبايناً سنوياً واضحاً وأنماطاً مميزة للفترات الجافة والرطبة. وقد جرى تحديد السنتين المائيتين 2007/08 و2011/12 بوصفهما أشد السنوات جفافاً وأكثرها اتساعاً مكانياً، في حين تُعد سنة 2018/19 مثالاً نموذجياً لفترة رطبة شديدة اتسمت بانتشار واسع للشذوذات الإيجابية. ويسجّل  SPI قصير الأمد (SPI-3) التقلبات الموسمية للجفاف، بينما يعكس المؤشر متوسط الأمد (SPI-6)  انتقال وتفاقم ظروف الجفاف، في حين يكشف المؤشر طويل الأمد (SPI-12) عن فترات الإجهاد الهيدرولوجي الممتد ومراحل التعافي.


بصورة عامة، يوفّر دمج بيانات الأمطار اليومية من CHIRPS مع المعالجة السحابية إطاراً عملياً وقابلًا للتحقق وإعادة التطبيق لرصد الجفاف، وهو ملائم للأقاليم الشحيحة بالبيانات، ويقدّم دعماً علمياً قيّماً لإدارة الموارد المائية والتخطيط المناخي.

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المؤلف

خضر رشيد عبدالرحمن الحكيم

قسم الجغرافيا/كلية التربية للعلوم الإنسانية/ جامعة الموصل

المعرفات

معرف الكائن الرقمي DOI: 10.33899/jeh.v6i24.60613

تنزيل هذا الملف
تنزيل

الإحصائيات

طريقة الاقتباس

اشتقاق مؤشر الهطول المعياري (SPI) من بيانات الأمطار اليومية المعتمدة على الأقمار الصناعية (CHIRPS) باستخدامGoogle Earth Engine لرصد الجفاف في العراق: Deriving SPI from Satellite-Based CHIRPS Daily Precipitation Using Google Earth Engine for Drought Monitoring in Iraq. (2026). مجلة التربیة للعلوم الانسانیة, 6(24). https://doi.org/10.33899/jeh.v6i24.60613

السيرة الذاتية للمؤلف

خضر رشيد عبدالرحمن الحكيم (قسم الجغرافيا/كلية التربية للعلوم الإنسانية/ جامعة الموصل)

حقوق الطبع والنشر والتراخيص
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